Publikasi

@article{nokey,

title = {Vulnerability of peatland fires in bengkalis regency during the ENSO El nino phase using a machine learning approach},

author = {Fauziah and Lilik B Prasetyo and Nonon Saribanon and Nur Hayati},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2024.103128},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-12-20},

journal = {MethodsX},

volume = {14},

issue = {June 2025},

abstract = {Peatland fires are increasingly becoming a concern as a recurring environmental issue in Indonesia, particularly along the east coast of Sumatra Island, in Bengkalis Regency. Therefore, the development of a peatland fire prediction model is necessary. This study aims to identify peatland fire vulnerability in Bengkalis Regency using burn area from MODIS 2019. The algorithm used are Random Forest (RF) and Logistic Regression (Log-Reg), with independent variables including physiography, peat physical characteristics, anthropogenic factors, climate, and NDMI. The total burned area in Bengkalis Regency in 2019 was 175.85 km², with Rupat District being the area with the largest burned area. The best model is RF that was able to predict peatland fires in Bengkalis Regency effectively, with achieving an AUC value of 0.972. The five main factors influencing peatland fires were road density, precipitation, drainage density, NDMI, and river density. The accuracy of RF reached 95.07%. The classification results indicated three levels of peatland fire vulnerability in Bengkalis Regency

• Non-Vulnerable: Areas classified as non-vulnerable are regions where the risk of peatland fires is minimal or non-existent.

• Low Vulnerability: These areas have a moderate risk of peatland fires.

• High Vulnerability: Areas with high vulnerability are the most susceptible to peatland fires.},

keywords = {ENSO, peatland},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Prasetyo2022,

title = {Assessing Sumatran Peat Vulnerability to Fire under Various Condition of ENSO Phases Using Machine Learning Approaches},

author = {Lilik B Prasetyo and Yudi Setiawan and Aryo Adhi Condro and Kustiyo and Eriyanto Indra Putra and Nur Hayati and Arif K Wijayanto and Almi Ramadhi and Daniel Murdiyarso},

url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/6/828},

doi = {10.3390/f13060828},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-05-25},

journal = {Forests},

volume = {13},

number = {6},

abstract = {In recent decades, catastrophic wildfire episodes within the Sumatran peatland have contributed to a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates the occurrence of fires in Indonesia through prolonged hydrological drought. Thus, assessing peatland vulnerability to fires and understanding the underlying drivers are essential to developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for peatland. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of Sumatran peat to fires under various ENSO conditions (i.e., El-Nino, La-Nina, and Normal phases) using correlative modelling approaches. This study used climatic (i.e., annual precipitation, SPI, and KBDI), biophysical (i.e., below-ground biomass, elevation, slope, and NBR), and proxies to anthropogenic disturbance variables (i.e., access to road, access to forests, access to cities, human modification, and human population) to assess fire vulnerability within Sumatran peatlands. We created an ensemble model based on various machine learning approaches (i.e., random forest, support vector machine, maximum entropy, and boosted regression tree). We found that the ensemble model performed better compared to a single algorithm for depicting fire vulnerability within Sumatran peatlands. The NBR highly contributed to the vulnerability of peatland to fire in Sumatra in all ENSO phases, followed by the anthropogenic variables. We found that the high to very-high peat vulnerability to fire increases during El-Nino conditions with variations in its spatial patterns occurring under different ENSO phases. This study provides spatially explicit information to support the management of peat fires, which will be particularly useful for identifying peatland restoration priorities based on peatland vulnerability to fire maps. Our findings highlight Riau’s peatland as being the area most prone to fires area on Sumatra Island. Therefore, the groundwater level within this area should be intensively monitored to prevent peatland fires. In addition, conserving intact forests within peatland through the moratorium strategy and restoring the degraded peatland ecosystem through canal blocking is also crucial to coping with global climate change.},

keywords = {ENSO, fire, land fire, peat land},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}