Prof. Dr. Ir. Lilik Budi Prasetyo, M.Sc

@article{Prasetyo2022,

title = {Assessing Sumatran Peat Vulnerability to Fire under Various Condition of ENSO Phases Using Machine Learning Approaches},

author = {Lilik B Prasetyo and Yudi Setiawan and Aryo Adhi Condro and Kustiyo and Eriyanto Indra Putra and Nur Hayati and Arif K Wijayanto and Almi Ramadhi and Daniel Murdiyarso},

url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/6/828},

doi = {10.3390/f13060828},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-05-25},

journal = {Forests},

volume = {13},

number = {6},

abstract = {In recent decades, catastrophic wildfire episodes within the Sumatran peatland have contributed to a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates the occurrence of fires in Indonesia through prolonged hydrological drought. Thus, assessing peatland vulnerability to fires and understanding the underlying drivers are essential to developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for peatland. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of Sumatran peat to fires under various ENSO conditions (i.e., El-Nino, La-Nina, and Normal phases) using correlative modelling approaches. This study used climatic (i.e., annual precipitation, SPI, and KBDI), biophysical (i.e., below-ground biomass, elevation, slope, and NBR), and proxies to anthropogenic disturbance variables (i.e., access to road, access to forests, access to cities, human modification, and human population) to assess fire vulnerability within Sumatran peatlands. We created an ensemble model based on various machine learning approaches (i.e., random forest, support vector machine, maximum entropy, and boosted regression tree). We found that the ensemble model performed better compared to a single algorithm for depicting fire vulnerability within Sumatran peatlands. The NBR highly contributed to the vulnerability of peatland to fire in Sumatra in all ENSO phases, followed by the anthropogenic variables. We found that the high to very-high peat vulnerability to fire increases during El-Nino conditions with variations in its spatial patterns occurring under different ENSO phases. This study provides spatially explicit information to support the management of peat fires, which will be particularly useful for identifying peatland restoration priorities based on peatland vulnerability to fire maps. Our findings highlight Riau’s peatland as being the area most prone to fires area on Sumatra Island. Therefore, the groundwater level within this area should be intensively monitored to prevent peatland fires. In addition, conserving intact forests within peatland through the moratorium strategy and restoring the degraded peatland ecosystem through canal blocking is also crucial to coping with global climate change.},

keywords = {ENSO, fire, land fire, peat land},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{setiawan2018identifying,

title = {Identifying Areas Affected By Fires In Sumatra Based On Time Series Of Remotely Sensed Fire Hotspots And Spatial Modeling},

author = {Yudi Setiawan and Lilik B Prasetyo and Hidayat Pawitan and Prita A Permatasari and Desi Suyamto and Arif K Wijayanto},

url = {http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/jpsl/article/view/24760},

doi = {10.29244/jpsl.8.3.420-427},

issn = {2460-5824},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management)},

volume = {8},

number = {3},

pages = {420--427},

abstract = {Wildfires threaten the environment not only at local scales, but also at wider scales. Rapid monitoring system to detect active wildfires has been provided by satellite remote sensing technology, particularly through the advancement on thermal infrared sensors. However, satellite-based fire hotspots data, even at relatively high temporal resolution of less than one-day revisit period, such as time series of fire hotspots collected from TERRA and AQUA MODIS, do not tell exactly if they are fire ignitions or fire escapes, since other factors like wind, slope, and fuel biomass significantly drive the fire spread. Meanwhile, a number of biophysical fire simulation models have been developed, as tools to understand the roles of biophysical factors on the spread of wildfires. Those models explicitly incorporate effects of slope, wind direction, wind speed, and vegetative fuel on the spreading rate of surface fire from the ignition points across a fuel bed, based on either field or laboratory experiments. Nevertheless, none of those models have been implemented using real time fire data at relatively large extent areas. This study is aimed at incorporating spatially explicit time series data of weather (i.e. wind direction and wind speed), remotely sensed fuel biomass and remotely sensed fire hotspots, as well as incorporating more persistent biophysical factors (i.e. terrain), into an agent-based fire spread model, in order to identify fire ignitions within time series of remotely sensed fire hotspots.},

keywords = {fire, hotspot},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}