Prasetyo, Lilik B; Setiawan, Yudi; Condro, Aryo Adhi; Kustiyo,; Putra, Eriyanto Indra; Hayati, Nur; Wijayanto, Arif K; Ramadhi, Almi; Murdiyarso, Daniel Assessing Sumatran Peat Vulnerability to Fire under Various Condition of ENSO Phases Using Machine Learning Approaches Journal Article In: Forests, vol. 13, no. 6, 2022. @article{Prasetyo2022,
title = {Assessing Sumatran Peat Vulnerability to Fire under Various Condition of ENSO Phases Using Machine Learning Approaches},
author = {Lilik B Prasetyo and Yudi Setiawan and Aryo Adhi Condro and Kustiyo and Eriyanto Indra Putra and Nur Hayati and Arif K Wijayanto and Almi Ramadhi and Daniel Murdiyarso},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/6/828},
doi = {10.3390/f13060828},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-05-25},
journal = {Forests},
volume = {13},
number = {6},
abstract = {In recent decades, catastrophic wildfire episodes within the Sumatran peatland have contributed to a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates the occurrence of fires in Indonesia through prolonged hydrological drought. Thus, assessing peatland vulnerability to fires and understanding the underlying drivers are essential to developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for peatland. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of Sumatran peat to fires under various ENSO conditions (i.e., El-Nino, La-Nina, and Normal phases) using correlative modelling approaches. This study used climatic (i.e., annual precipitation, SPI, and KBDI), biophysical (i.e., below-ground biomass, elevation, slope, and NBR), and proxies to anthropogenic disturbance variables (i.e., access to road, access to forests, access to cities, human modification, and human population) to assess fire vulnerability within Sumatran peatlands. We created an ensemble model based on various machine learning approaches (i.e., random forest, support vector machine, maximum entropy, and boosted regression tree). We found that the ensemble model performed better compared to a single algorithm for depicting fire vulnerability within Sumatran peatlands. The NBR highly contributed to the vulnerability of peatland to fire in Sumatra in all ENSO phases, followed by the anthropogenic variables. We found that the high to very-high peat vulnerability to fire increases during El-Nino conditions with variations in its spatial patterns occurring under different ENSO phases. This study provides spatially explicit information to support the management of peat fires, which will be particularly useful for identifying peatland restoration priorities based on peatland vulnerability to fire maps. Our findings highlight Riau’s peatland as being the area most prone to fires area on Sumatra Island. Therefore, the groundwater level within this area should be intensively monitored to prevent peatland fires. In addition, conserving intact forests within peatland through the moratorium strategy and restoring the degraded peatland ecosystem through canal blocking is also crucial to coping with global climate change.},
keywords = {ENSO, fire, land fire, peat land},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
In recent decades, catastrophic wildfire episodes within the Sumatran peatland have contributed to a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates the occurrence of fires in Indonesia through prolonged hydrological drought. Thus, assessing peatland vulnerability to fires and understanding the underlying drivers are essential to developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for peatland. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of Sumatran peat to fires under various ENSO conditions (i.e., El-Nino, La-Nina, and Normal phases) using correlative modelling approaches. This study used climatic (i.e., annual precipitation, SPI, and KBDI), biophysical (i.e., below-ground biomass, elevation, slope, and NBR), and proxies to anthropogenic disturbance variables (i.e., access to road, access to forests, access to cities, human modification, and human population) to assess fire vulnerability within Sumatran peatlands. We created an ensemble model based on various machine learning approaches (i.e., random forest, support vector machine, maximum entropy, and boosted regression tree). We found that the ensemble model performed better compared to a single algorithm for depicting fire vulnerability within Sumatran peatlands. The NBR highly contributed to the vulnerability of peatland to fire in Sumatra in all ENSO phases, followed by the anthropogenic variables. We found that the high to very-high peat vulnerability to fire increases during El-Nino conditions with variations in its spatial patterns occurring under different ENSO phases. This study provides spatially explicit information to support the management of peat fires, which will be particularly useful for identifying peatland restoration priorities based on peatland vulnerability to fire maps. Our findings highlight Riau’s peatland as being the area most prone to fires area on Sumatra Island. Therefore, the groundwater level within this area should be intensively monitored to prevent peatland fires. In addition, conserving intact forests within peatland through the moratorium strategy and restoring the degraded peatland ecosystem through canal blocking is also crucial to coping with global climate change. |
Maulana, Sandhi I; Syaufina, Lailan; Prasetyo, Lilik B; Aidi, M N A spatial decision support system for peatland fires prediction and prevention in Bengkalis Regency, Indonesia Conference vol. 528, IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci, 2020. @conference{Maulana2020b,
title = {A spatial decision support system for peatland fires prediction and prevention in Bengkalis Regency, Indonesia},
author = {Sandhi I Maulana and Lailan Syaufina and Lilik B Prasetyo and M N Aidi},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/528/1/012052/meta},
doi = {10.1088/1755-1315/528/1/012052},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-07-21},
volume = {528},
publisher = {IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci},
abstract = {A Spatial decision support system (SDSS) is an integrated computer-based system that can be used to support decision makers in addressing spatial problems through iterative approaches with functionality for handling both of spatial and non-spatial databases, analytical modelling capabilities, decision making support, as well as effective data and information presentation utilities. Previously, many studies have proven that this kind of decision support system is also useful in addressing wildfires problems effectively. Considering this technological advancement, this study is primarily aimed to develop a peatland fires management system by implementing the concept of SDSS. Developed system in this study is consisting of two separate sub-system, namely prediction and prevention sub-systems, which are then integrated into one whole working scheme using loose coupling method. Overall, it can be concluded that such integrated prediction and prevention system has various advantages. Firstly, it is useful to establish rapid coordination among involved stakeholders in deciding suitable approaches to prevent peatland fires. Secondly, promoting a more pro-active fire management system that is relied on predict-and-prevent approach. Thirdly, avoiding further delay on fires prevention while minimizing error in resources allocation. Lastly, this kind of decision support system can be rapidly updated following on-going technological and field situation developments.},
keywords = {Bengkalis, DSS, fire, peat land, Riau},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {conference}
}
A Spatial decision support system (SDSS) is an integrated computer-based system that can be used to support decision makers in addressing spatial problems through iterative approaches with functionality for handling both of spatial and non-spatial databases, analytical modelling capabilities, decision making support, as well as effective data and information presentation utilities. Previously, many studies have proven that this kind of decision support system is also useful in addressing wildfires problems effectively. Considering this technological advancement, this study is primarily aimed to develop a peatland fires management system by implementing the concept of SDSS. Developed system in this study is consisting of two separate sub-system, namely prediction and prevention sub-systems, which are then integrated into one whole working scheme using loose coupling method. Overall, it can be concluded that such integrated prediction and prevention system has various advantages. Firstly, it is useful to establish rapid coordination among involved stakeholders in deciding suitable approaches to prevent peatland fires. Secondly, promoting a more pro-active fire management system that is relied on predict-and-prevent approach. Thirdly, avoiding further delay on fires prevention while minimizing error in resources allocation. Lastly, this kind of decision support system can be rapidly updated following on-going technological and field situation developments. |
